Get ready for a fascinating National League showdown as the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers travel to American Family Field to take on the tough and resilient Milwaukee Brewers. While the Dodgers boast a lineup filled with superstars, our expert analysis reveals a pitching mismatch that makes the home underdog an incredibly tempting play.
Before we dive into the expert pick, let’s get you all the essential details for tonight’s big game.
Game Details & How to Watch
- Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (72-46) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (65-55)
- Date: Tuesday, August 15, 2023
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
- TV Channel: SportsNet LA, Bally Sports Wisconsin
The Odds Breakdown
Here’s what the betting markets are saying about tonight’s matchup, with odds courtesy of BetMGM:
- Moneyline:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -190
- Milwaukee Brewers: +160
- Run Line:
- Dodgers -1.5: -120
- Brewers +1.5: +100
- Total (Over/Under):
- Over 8.5: -120
- Under 8.5: +100
For those new to betting, the Moneyline is a straight-up bet on who will win the game. A $100 bet on the Brewers at +160 would win you $160. The Run Line is baseball’s version of the point spread, and the Total is a bet on the combined number of runs scored by both teams.
The Pitching Matchup is the Key
While the Dodgers’ offense is one of the most feared in baseball, tonight’s game hinges on the men on the mound. And this is where the Brewers have a significant and undervalued advantage.
The Case Against the Dodgers’ Bobby Miller
On the surface, Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller looks solid with a 3.89 ERA for the season. But when you dig a little deeper, some warning signs appear. Over his last seven starts, Miller has struggled, posting a concerning 5.28 ERA.
More importantly, his underlying metrics suggest he’s been a bit lucky. His expected ERA (xERA) sits at 4.54, which indicates he’s been giving up the kind of contact that should have led to more runs. He’s a talented young pitcher, but he’s in a rough patch and could be due for a tough outing.
Why Adrian Houser is the X-Factor
On the other side, the Brewers are sending veteran Adrian Houser to the mound, and he has been absolutely dominant at home this season. In his starts at American Family Field, Houser boasts an incredible 2.25 ERA.
He’s a groundball specialist who knows how to limit hard contact and keep the ball in the park—a perfect recipe for success against a powerful Dodgers lineup. He’s in excellent form and has proven time and again that he is a different, more effective pitcher in front of his home crowd.
Expert Pick: The Value is with the Home Dog
This is a classic case of public perception versus on-field reality. The Dodgers are the “public” team, with a star-studded lineup that draws a lot of betting action, which is why they are such heavy favorites.
However, the starting pitching matchup heavily favors Milwaukee. Adrian Houser’s elite performance at home compared to Bobby Miller’s recent struggles and negative regression indicators creates a massive value opportunity. Getting a team with this significant of a pitching advantage at +160 odds is too good to pass up.
THE PICK: Brewers Moneyline (+160)
Expect the Brewers to leverage their pitching advantage and home-field magic to pull off the upset. Enjoy the game
